> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://whitepaper.after-bell.uk/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://whitepaper.after-bell.uk/risks-and-limitations/oracle-risk.md).

# Oracle Risk

Covers data-source, timing, and resolution risks affecting market outcomes.

### Resolution depends on external facts

AFTERBELL markets require an external price or reference condition to resolve. If the resolution input is wrong, the market can resolve incorrectly. This is a core protocol risk.

The source describes the consequence directly: **“If the oracle is wrong, everything breaks.”** A completed settlement path and correctly represented ERC-1155 outcome tokens cannot correct a wrong external condition after it is used to decide which outcome wins.

```
External price condition
        ↓
OracleResolver
        ↓
Market resolution
        ↓
Winning outcome redemption
```

The architecture attempts to reduce single-source dependence. It does not claim oracle perfection or full trustlessness.

### Primary oracle input

The Chainlink Stock Token Feed is the primary price source. It is available on-chain, is read by `OracleResolver`, and supplies the stock-token price used in the resolution path. The source states that this price includes dividend adjustments.

```
Chainlink Stock Token Feed
            ↓
      OracleResolver
            ↓
 primary resolution input
```

An on-chain primary input gives the protocol a contract-readable value. It does not prove that the value is correct, current, or always available. The source does not specify heartbeat, stale-data threshold, node count, update frequency, fallback oracle, TWAP, or confidence score.

### Secondary cross-check

The Robinhood REST API is the secondary off-chain reference. Its purpose is to cross-check the primary Chainlink value before normal resolution proceeds.

```
Chainlink → primary resolution input
Robinhood API → secondary verification input
```

This comparison is intended to reduce dependence on one source. It does not make the system fully trustless. The Robinhood API is an external reference source, not an on-chain oracle or a decentralized oracle network.

### Circuit breaker

The circuit-breaker threshold is **5%**:

```
Chainlink + Robinhood API cross-check
                 ↓
      disagreement ≤5% → normal resolution
      disagreement >5% → market pause
                              ↓
                       manual resolution
```

The source example is explicit:

| Source    | Value |
| --------- | ----: |
| Chainlink |  $152 |
| Robinhood |  $140 |

The difference is approximately **7.9%**. It exceeds 5%, so the market pauses.

The circuit breaker does not prove which value is correct. It is a failure-containment mechanism. Its role is to stop automatic resolution when two documented references materially disagree.

{% hint style="warning" %}
Pausing prevents automatic resolution under material disagreement. It does not itself determine the correct outcome.
{% endhint %}

### Failure modes and exception path

The source-supported risk sequence is:

1. Chainlink becomes stale or incorrect.
2. The Robinhood API lags or provides conflicting data.
3. The two sources disagree materially.
4. The circuit breaker triggers.
5. The market pauses.
6. Manual resolution becomes necessary.

The normal and exception paths make this boundary visible:

```
NORMAL
Chainlink → Robinhood API cross-check → ≤5% disagreement → resolution

EXCEPTION
Chainlink → Robinhood API cross-check → >5% disagreement
→ circuit breaker → market pause → manual resolution
```

In the exception path, an administrator resolves using off-chain evidence. This introduces a human trust dependency. The source does not define the administrator count, identity, evidence hierarchy, challenge period, multisig, DAO, or governance vote.

### Risk table

| Oracle risk                       | Trigger                      | Impact                           | Current mitigation        |
| --------------------------------- | ---------------------------- | -------------------------------- | ------------------------- |
| Stale or incorrect Chainlink data | Primary source is wrong      | Incorrect resolution risk        | Secondary cross-check     |
| Robinhood API discrepancy         | Reference differs materially | Automatic resolution interrupted | 5% circuit breaker        |
| Material source disagreement      | More than 5% difference      | Market pauses                    | Manual resolution         |
| Manual resolution                 | Exception path               | Human judgment required          | Off-chain evidence review |

These controls do not eliminate risk. The secondary check can detect a material discrepancy, and the circuit breaker can contain automatic resolution. Neither control independently proves external truth or guarantees the manual result.

### Current limitation

The oracle design remains part of a system under development. Smart contracts are not yet audited, and an audit is planned before mainnet. The design should not be described as production-proven.

AFTERBELL is documented in whitepaper **v0.1, September 2026**. Revenue projections are not proven, organic liquidity is not guaranteed, and the project has no current token. It is a product, not a token launch.

### Conclusion

AFTERBELL does not claim oracle perfection. Its current design is **“trust, but verify, twice.”** It reduces single-source dependence through a secondary cross-check and pauses on material disagreement. External data and manual exception handling remain explicit trust boundaries.


---

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